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Ordinary Forecasting

Forecasting from the Past

When trying to find a good way to handle a problem, it is easy to look to the past. The logical mind depends on repeating whatever happened previously as an answer. There is actual proof of it working. In history class, we studied the past so that we could learn from it. Past methods of taking over the next fort involved some hot oil or flaming arrows. I am not sure what current day use those would have. Maybe it would just be the fact that they would definitely be the wrong way. Pioneers used their accumulated knowledge to feel conditions in addition to observing them. They were the living weather channel.

Forecasting the Future

When trying to determine what to do with future issues, there is fog. Due to the fact that it is impossible to know what will work with absolute certainty, multiple ideas might come to mind. But none of them are guarantees. When the mind doesn’t feel certain about choice, it tends to start up some self-talking battle comparing all of the alternatives. Conditions could change based on cloud cover, likely storms and the range of temperature involved in the dilemma. The weather is pretty volatile and unpredictable at times.

Local Weather

The weather forecasters always sound upbeat even when dispensing the prediction percentages on unfavorable conditions. It is a game of chance, and they use equipment to back up their formulas based on past experience. Since everyday seems to have at least a little difference, it is rare to be exactly right. When they toss in the outside chance of some pop-up storm, I know they are hedging their bets. I bet weather people are great gamblers. When we keep our predictions about what might happen closer to us, there is a greater chance of them being right. It is possible to mix a little past knowledge with some idea of how to predict the future to settle in the right range of what might happen. And carry an umbrella, just in case.

Present Conditions

There is one thing for certain. Present conditions are present conditions. They might be influenced by the past, but they can be accessed in real time by just pausing. If you want to experience certainty, stop where you are. Look around. What you see and hear is reality. When working in the short span that we call the present, there is the ability to shift attention to the main topics of interest and let them provide a way. Since conditions will still change, multiple pauses will expand the information and continue to update the reasoning to inch toward the correct report. Limiting the view to right now reduces distractions and centers the options to increase the chances of being enlightened by only what is available. Relying on right now opens up the future. Since the past will only provide old information, it is not made for the future. Forecasting future conditions has the unlimited space needed to develop new solutions. That is what makes the future sunny.

How does it feel to toss out the past to create the future? With all of the future ahead, what can be included in the forecast? What does this present moment look and feel like?

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Nancy Pyle is a Master Practitioner in NLP and a Master Certified Strategic Life Coach